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We’ve seen a 21% stock market rally, since the mini-bear market of last year and the media is fueling it even more, now that it’s matured.  But, only few analysts are paying attention to the massive asset class exodus that’s about to take place in the markets: all indications point to a bullish setup in cryptocurrency, particularly in Bitcoin.
Technical analysis of the Bitcoin chart serves to block out the noise and focus on the price action that we’re seeing right now. First, the ultimate pair, that of Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar is retesting the psychologically significant $4,000 level, after its recent rejection of it. The USD is holding strong, but that’s only on the surface. We looked deeper.
The MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) indicator, displayed here below the BTC/USD candlestick chart, shows the signal line crossing above the MACD line, and also shows the MACD histogram strengthening. This is big stuff, absolutely indicative of a potential breakout.


When we took a closer look at the shows that we’re hitting the highest reading in a year.

The bullish cross of the signal line over the MACD line, combined with the high reading on the histogram, indicate a strong potential for a new and positive long-term momentum shift in Bitcoin. The bear market could be, officially, behind us.

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What the mainstream analysts haven’t picked up on (since most of them didn’t pay attention to cryptocurrency until 2017) is that the price action in Bitcoin we’re experiencing now is nearly identical to what longtime investors witnessed in 2013 and 2014. Check out the euphoric run-up at the end of 2013, peaking in December and followed by a bear market that dragged on for a while.


What took place in 2017 and 2018, and is continuing note-for-note into 2019 is natural for this sector. Of course, in hindsight we all know that the 2013 “top” was reclaimed, and loyal Bitcoin investors were eventually rewarded with dazzling returns.

Bitcoin is bottoming-out and preparing for liftoff, while the stock market, by contrast, is just looking exhausted after a relentless 21% rally. The S&P 500’s ascent from 2,316 on Christmas Eve to around 2,810 today has been profitable for us, since our position in Starbucks is up BIG-TIME, as well as our position in Nestle, which have both beaten the index, as well as Altria Group, which is soaring!

The vertical slope of the price movement is just asking for trouble. Don’t get lured into going LONG U.S. equities, when clearly a correction is due.

Be cautious here. Retail traders, who pile in at nosebleed levels, while institutions take positions when the newbies are panicking, are the only people left buying today. This is extreme optimism levels. The proof is that the S&P 500 has closed above its 10-day moving average for 40 days in a row.

This hasn’t happened since 2010 – nearly a decade ago – after which the stock market peaked in 2011 and fell 19%. The most recent instance prior to that was in 1997; again, the market peaked soon afterwards, that time declining by 9%.

Another ominous sign we’ve picked up on is the high reading of U.S. investor sentiment, which we can measure via the bull-bear spread of survey data as reported by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII):


It works like this: the AAII asks investors how they feel about the stock market over the next six months: are they bullish, bearish, or neutral? Then they calculate the results and release their findings on a weekly basis. As can be seen in the foregoing chart, U.S. investor sentiment is getting close to the peak level seen back in October – which immediately preceded a bear market.

Nothing goes up forever, and despite the euphoric feeling that retail investors are feeling today, jumping on the stock market bandwagon now is like running on a frozen lake, before the sun comes up – it’s a recipe for disaster. On the other hand, an asset class that isn’t trading at peak levels, but is only starting an uptrend is Bitcoin and that’s where our efforts must be at.

In fact, I’ve uncovered another potential triple-digit winner in the tokenization sector.

I plan to publish all the data very soon!

Best Regards,

Thomas Hugh

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